India’s third COVID wave may peak between Oct-Nov, intensity to be less than second wave: Scientist
A scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of India’s COVID-19 pandemic on Monday claimed that the country is likely to see the third wave peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerges by September.
He, however, said that the infection’s intensity would be much lower than the second wave,
Manindra Agrawal, an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts that have been tasked with predicting any surge in infections, said if no new virulent emerges, then the situation is unlikely to change.
He said if the third wave peaks, the country may see only 1 lakh (100,000) daily cases as against more than 4 lakh (400,000) when the devastating second wave was at its peak in May.
“Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50% more infectious mutant comes by September. As one can see, the only scenario with some semblance of third wave is New Variant one for epsilon = 1/33. In this scenario, new cases rise to 1 lakh per day,” Agrawal tweeted.
Agrawal said the fresh data comprising the vaccinations that have taken place in July and August, the sero-surveys that gave insights about the anti-bodies were factored in while assuming the scenarios.
Last month, the model suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November and the daily cases could surge between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 triggers fresh infections.
On Monday, India recorded 42,909 cases, a drop of 4.7 per cent from Sunday. About 380 deaths were reported, according to India’s health ministry.
Active cases constitute 1.15% of total cases, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate stands 97.51 per cent, the Union Health Ministry said.