Economic Survey - Drop in Total fertility Rate will slow down population growth

"Population projection at the national and State level up to 2041 show that India has entered the next stage of demographic transition, with population growth set to slow sharply in the next two decades. This is mainly due to the rapid decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in recent decades, which is expected to be below replacement level fertility by 2021," the Survey adds.

On the population growth trajectory, the Economic Survey says: "Both the trajectory of population and population growth will vary across States. States ahead in the demographic transition will witness a continued deceleration in population growth and reach near-zero growth rate by 2031-41. States lagging behind in the demographic transition will also witness a marked slowdown in population growth during 2021-41."

"A surprising fact is that the population in the age bracket 0-19 has already peaked due to a sharp decline in TFR across the country. The national TFR is expected to be below the replacement rate by 2021. The share of India's young, i.e., 0-19 years is projected to drop from as high as 41 per cent in 2011 to 25 per cent by 2041," says the Survey.

"On the other hand, the share of elderly, 60 years and above, in the population will continue to rise steadily nearly doubling from 8.6 per cent in 2011 to 16 per cent by 2041. The working age population will grow by roughly 9.7 million per annum during 2021-31 and 4.2 million per annum during 2031-41," the Survey further informs.