Earth will exceed 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold in the next decade: Study

A new study assisted by artificial intelligence has revealed that the Earth will breach the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold over industrial levels within the next decade. The report sounds alarm bells over global warming and its catastrophic effects on the environment.

Researchers at Stanford University and Colorado State University also found that Earth is on track to exceed the two degree Celsius warming mark, and there is a 50 per cent chance that that might happen by the middle of the century. Scientists identify the mark as a tipping point for the Earth.

“We have very clear evidence of the impact on different ecosystems from the one Celsius of global warming that’s already happened,” Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study, told Guardian. “This new study, using a new method, adds to the evidence that we certainly will face continuing changes in climate that intensify the impacts we are already feeling.”

A type of AI that recognizes relationships in vast sets of data was used for the study. Scientists trained the system to analyse global climate model simulations. It was then asked to determine timelines for given temperature thresholds.

The results it threw up show that there is a near 70 per cent chance that the two-degree threshold would be crossed between 2044 and 2065. This is even if emissions register a rapid decline.

To understand how accurate the model is, historical measurements were also entered into the system to evaluate current levels of heating already noted. Using data from 1980 to 2021, the AI threw correct prediction on the 1.1 degree Celsius warming reached by 2022.

The United Nations Paris agreement outlines the two temperature thresholds as crisis points. Nearly 200 countries have signed the landmark pact, in which they have pledged to keep heating well below two degrees. It also recognises that aiming for 1.5 degree Celsius “would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.